AI-generated production networks: Measurement and applications to global trade
This event will be in hybrid format but will not be recorded.
This paper leverages generative AI to build a network structure over 5,000 product nodes, where directed edges represent input-output relationships in production. We layout a two-step ‘build-prune’ approach using an ensemble of prompt-tuned generative AI classifications. The ’build’ step provides an initial distribution of edge-predictions, the ‘prune’ step then re-evaluates all edges. With our AI-generated Production Network (AIPNET) in toe, we document a host of shifts in the network position of products and countries during the 21st century. Finally, we study production network spillovers using the natural experiment presented by the 2017 blockade of Qatar. We find strong evidence of such spillovers, suggestive of on-shoring of critical production. This descriptive and causal evidence demonstrates some of the many research possibilities opened up by our granular measurement of product linkages, including studies of on-shoring, industrial policy, and other recent shifts in global trade.
About the speaker
Thiemo Fetzer is Professor of Economics at Warwick University and at the University of Bonn. Thiemo is also an Academic Visitor at the Bank of England, an Affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and a Fellow at the British National Institute for Social and Economic Research (NIESR).
His work cross cuts many fields in economics ranging from international trade, economic development, finance, to spatial economics and political economy leveraging frontier techniques from machine learning, artificial intelligence and computer science.
Date:
22 January 2025, 14:30
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
Seminar Room G and online via Zoom
Speaker:
Prof Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick / University of Bonn)
Organising department:
Institute for New Economic Thinking
Organisers:
Dorothy Nicholas (INET Oxford),
Francois Lafond (INET Oxford)
Organiser contact email address:
complexity@inet.ox.ac.uk
Host:
Prof. Doyne Farmer
Part of:
INET Complexity Economics Seminars
Booking required?:
Required
Booking url:
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/ai-generated-production-networks
Audience:
Public
Editors:
Dorothy Nicholas,
Fiona Burbage
