Subjective Causality in Choice
When making a decision based on observational data, a person’s choice depends on her beliefs about which correlations reflect causality and which do not. We model an agent who predicts the outcome of each available action from observational data using a subjective causal model represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). An analyst can identify the agent’s DAG from her random choice rule. Her choices reveal the chains of causal reasoning that she undertakes and the confounding variables she adjusts for, and these objects pin down her model. When her choices determine the data available, her behaviour affects her inferences, which in turn affect her choices. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for testing whether such an agent’s behaviour is compatible with the model.
Date: 2 February 2024, 14:15 (Friday, 3rd week, Hilary 2024)
Venue: Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details: Seminar Room G or https://zoom.us/j/93867615769?pwd=VmRJVVRkYlhUajllTEJyd2NsTUs3QT09
Speaker: Heidi Thysen (Norwegian School of Economics)
Organising department: Department of Economics
Part of: Nuffield Economic Theory Seminar
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Members of the University only
Editors: Shreyasi Banerjee, Edward Clark