The Impact of Technology Pathways on Power-Sector Assets Stranding

Existing power plants globally have a capacity that is large enough to emit greenhouse gases beyond the limits of a 2°C carbon budget. Some of these plants will have to be stranded. This paper estimates the amount of asset stranding required to meet the 2°C target under different technological pathways. We find that 314.1 kTWh of global electricity generation from fossil fuels need to be stranded between 2021 and 2100 to abide by the 2°C target. This is 12 years of global electricity generation at 2018 level. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and negative energy technologies (NETs, e.g. bioenergy) could reduce the global fossil fuel assets stranding by 50% and 25% respectively. While CCS and NETs have the potential to relax the climate pressure on the electric sector, large amounts of power-generation infrastructure would still have to be stranded even if these options were upscaled to tackle climate change.