Population health impact of new medicines recommended by NICE in England, 2000-2020

Health systems experience difficult trade-offs when paying for new drugs. In England, funding recommendations by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for new drugs might generate health gains, but inevitably result in foregone health as the funds cannot be used for alternative treatments and services. We evaluated the population-health impact of NICE recommendations for new drugs during 2000-20. NHS coverage of new drugs displaced more population health than it generated. Our results highlight the inherent trade-offs between individuals who directly benefit from new drugs and those who forgo health due to the reallocation of resources towards new drugs.