The world is in crisis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has signified a military challenge of a resurgent Russia to the existing international order in the 21st century. The conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began in October 2023, has further jeopardized international peace and stability in the international order. However, in the eyes of US policymakers, China was still seen as ‘America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge’ in the 21st century. Strategic competition between the United States and China has intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic. The constant downward spiral of US‒China relations might eventually push the two nations into the ‘Thucydides trap’ ‒ the potential military conflict between the hegemon and a rising power in the international system. While acknowledging, without understating, the inherent dangers of the two powers involving wars or military conflicts, this talk contends that competition is not necessarily detrimental. Constructive competition between the US and China, if managed with strategic foresight and restraint, could inadvertently lead to positive consequences for regional stability and peace. The concept of forging ‘institutional peace’ in the Asia-Pacific, anchored in the practice of institutional balancing between the US and China, is a challenging yet feasible goal during the period of international order transition in the Asia-Pacific region.

Kai He is a Professor of International Relations in the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University, Australia. He is currently a fellow of the Academy of International Affairs-NRW in Bonn, Germany (January-March 2024).