The evolution and outcomes of the armed conflicts in Ukraine over the period 2014-2024 have been strongly influenced by ideological, political, and military factors. However, defence-economic developments in Russia, Ukraine, countries of the Anti-Russia Coalition (ARC), and other nations have become increasingly important since February 2022 because Russia’s ‘limited military operation’ has evolved into a major resource-intensive and attritional war that has required mobilisations of military personnel and of defence industry in the direct adversary countries and provision of large-scale military and financial support to Ukraine by the ARC. This talk will use concepts and empirical material to answer key questions concerning Russia’s economy and defence-industrial complex (DIC) and economic issues related the war in Ukraine during 20222-24. The key concepts are: (1) the Russian economic system (war economy) and the production of economic power, (2) priority protection mechanisms in the war economy, (3) the defence industrial complex and the generation of military power, (4) global and regional economic-military power balances, (5) relations between Russia and other countries (adversary, neutral, partner) and their economic impacts, (6) economic sanctions/warfare and countermeasures, and (7) economic costs of war to Russia, Ukraine, the ARC, and non-engaged countries (China, Global South).
Relevant Publications:
Davis, C. (2024, Forthcoming) Defence-Economic Aspects of Russia’s Involvement in the War in Ukraine: Economic Systems, Defence Industrial Complexes, International Economic Relationships, Economic Warfare, and Economic Costs, Submitted to journal for review in January 2024.
Davis, C. (2020, January) The Russian Defence Industry, 1980-2025: Systemic Change, Policies, Performance, and Prospects, Chapter in Keith Hartley (UK) and Jean Belin (France) The Economics of the Global Defence Industry (69-125), Taylor and France. ISBN: 978-1-138-60809-2
[A pdf copy can be obtained from CCW upon individual request.]
Davis, C. (2016) The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances, and Economic Sanctions, Post-Communist Economies, Open Access at: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14631377.2016.1139301
Davis, C. (2002) The Defence Sector in the Economy of a Declining Superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2000, Defence and Peace Economics, 13: 3, 145-177
Christopher Davis is an academic expert on the economies of Russia and East Europe, whose research has focused on the USSR/Russia and the topics of economics of health, demography (mortality trends, population ageing), industry, and defence economics. He obtained a B.A. in Applied Mathematics at Harvard University (1969) and a Ph.D. in Economics in 1980 at Cambridge University for a dissertation on The Economics of Health in the USSR. He has held tenured academic positions at the University of Birmingham (Centre for Russian and East European Studies, 1978-1991) and the University of Oxford (Economics and Area Studies/REES, 1991-2015). At present he is a Professorial Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing. He has made over 50 academic research visits to the USSR and Russia during 1974-2020, including to Moscow State University as a doctoral student on the USA-USSR exchange for the 1976-77 academic year.
In the military/defence field, Christopher studied at Harvard on an NROTC scholarship and served as an officer in the US Navy during 1969-73, reaching the rank of Lieutenant. He commenced his academic research on defence economics in 1985 following an eight-month Ford Foundation Post-Doctoral Fellowship in National Security and Arms Control at MIT. He has produced over fifteen publications about the economics of defence in the USSR/Russia, including those shown below. Over the past six months he organized a large conference about the economics of the war in Ukraine, which was held at Wolfson College in December 2023.
