Pathways to Conflict in the South China Sea
The South China Sea is considered one of the world’s major flashpoints. How and why might war break out? In this presentation Professor Welch examines various possible pathways to conflict, arguing that a delicate but stable modus vivendi is possible in theory, but only if key actors appreciate each other’s beliefs, wants, needs, and fears. Put another way: the best way of avoiding war is to cultivate empathy. Failure to do so increases the danger that key players will provoke precisely what they seek to prevent. Unfortunately, however, empathy is in dangerously short supply. As a result, misperceptions are rampant.

David A. Welch is University Research Chair and Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo. He teaches at the Balsillie School of International Affairs and is co-editor (with Claudia Aradau and Catherine Lu) of International Theory. His 2005 book Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change (Princeton University Press) is the inaugural winner of the International Studies Association ISSS Book Award for the best book published in 2005 or 2006, and his 1993 book Justice and the Genesis of War (Cambridge University Press) is the winner of the 1994 Edgar S. Furniss Award for an Outstanding Contribution to National Security Studies. He is the author most recently of Security: A Philosophical Investigation (Cambridge University Press, 2022).
Date: 19 February 2025, 12:00
Venue: Dickson Poon Building, Canterbury Road OX2 6LU
Venue Details: Ho Tim Seminar Room (first floor)
Speaker: Professor David A. Welch (University of Waterloo)
Organising department: Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies
Organiser: Professor Todd Hall (University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address: information@chinese.ox.ac.uk
Host: Professor Todd Hall (University of Oxford)
Part of: China Centre talks
Booking required?: Not required
Cost: Free
Audience: Public
Editor: Clare Orchard