Elite Cues and Non-compliance
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Meeting ID: 971 5609 9278 Passcode: 324627

Abstract: Political leaders increasingly use social media to speak directly to voters, but the extent to which elite cues shape offline behavior remains unclear. In this article, we study the effects of elite cues on non-compliant behavior, focusing on a series of controversial tweets sent by US President Donald Trump calling for the “liberation” of Minnesota, Virginia and Michigan from state and local government COVID-19 restrictions. Leveraging the fact that Trump’s messages exclusively referred to three specific US states, we adopt a generalized difference-in-differences design relying on spatial variation to identify the causal effects of the targeted cues. Our analysis shows that the President’s messages led to an increase in movement, a decrease in adherence to stay-at-home restrictions, and an increase in arrests of white Americans for crimes related to civil disobedience and rebellion. These findings demonstrate the consequences of elite cues in polarized environments.
Date: 7 May 2024, 12:30 (Tuesday, 3rd week, Trinity 2024)
Venue: Nuffield College, New Road OX1 1NF
Venue Details: SCR (A staircase)
Speaker: Sara Hobolt (LSE)
Organising department: Nuffield College
Organisers: Tarik Abou-Chadi (Nuffield College), Rachel Bernhard (University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address: maxine.collett@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Part of: Nuffield College Political Science Seminars
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Members of the University only
Editor: Maxine Collett