New Evidence on Pandemic Excess Mortality in India
Understanding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic is a global scientific and policy challenge. This seminar reports results from two large-scale surveys in India: the National Family Health Survey – 5 (using interviews conducted in early 2021) and a phone survey in Rural Bihar conducted in early 2022. Both surveys estimate reliable rates of pre-pandemic mortality. We find that official COVID-19 death surveillance grossly underestimates the scale of excess mortality. The surveys also find periods of elevated mortality, particularly in rural areas, that have been missed in narratives of how the pandemic unfolded in India. To the extent that the data allow us to examine inequalities in excess deaths, we find substantial disparities. The analysis presented here underscores the possibility of measuring mortality well even in some of the poorest regions of the world, and the many payoffs of doing so.
Date: 15 February 2023, 16:00 (Wednesday, 5th week, Hilary 2023)
Venue: Nuffield College, New Road OX1 1NF
Venue Details: Clay Room
Speaker: Aashish Gupta (Leverhulme Center for Demographic Science)
Organising department: Nuffield College
Organisers: Ridhi Kashyap (University of Oxford), Prof. Melinda Mills (University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address: maxine.collett@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Part of: Nuffield College Sociology Seminars
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Members of the University only
Editor: Maxine Collett