The South China Sea is considered one of the world’s major flashpoints. How and why might war breakout? In this presentation I examine various possible pathways to conflict, arguing that a delicate but stable modus vivendi is possible in theory, but only if key actors appreciate each other’s beliefs, wants, needs, and fears. Put another way: the best way of avoiding war is to cultivate empathy. Failure to do so increases the danger that key players will provoke precisely what they seek to prevent. Unfortunately, however, empathy is in dangerously short supply. As a result, misperceptions are rampant. For relevant background reading, please see journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/18681034221086291.