Near-Real Time Analysis of War and Economic Activity during Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Prof Zhukov will discuss his recent paper, titled Near-Real Time Analysis of War and Economic Activity during Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. In this paper introduces near-real time data on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and uses these data to investigate the short-term impact of occupation and violence on local economic activity. The data project VIINA (Violent Incident Information from News Articles) parses news reports from Ukrainian and Russian media, geo-references them, and classifies them into standard event categories (e.g. artillery shelling) through machine learning. As we show, VIINA is more geographically comprehensive and more thoroughly documented than other open-source event databases on Ukraine, and is the only such effort to track territorial control. We illustrate applications for research on political economy, by utilizing remote sensing data on luminosity and vegetation as proxies for urban economic activity and agricultural land use. We find that economic activity declined most in urban areas that neither side fully controlled, and in places most exposed to artillery shelling. Areas under Russian occupation, however, were more insulated from these negative shocks. Although not causal, these findings are in line with the view that war brings not only economic devastation, but also vast geographic inequalities that are almost immediately observable from space.
Date: 5 May 2023, 16:00 (Friday, 2nd week, Trinity 2023)
Venue: Brasenose College, Radcliffe Square OX1 4AJ
Venue Details: Planteauer Room
Speaker: Prof Yuri M. Zhukov (University of Michigan)
Organiser: Andrea Ruggeri (University of Oxford)
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Public
Editors: Daniel Burton, Joby Mullens, Rebecca Freeman, Helen Morley