Extreme Weather Events and the Support for Democracy
Climate change and the erosion of democratic norms are two of the most pressing global challenges. This paper establishes a link between individuals’ support for democracy and extreme weather events, such as droughts, in the context of sub-Saharan Africa—a region highly vulnerable to climate change and where democratic norms are fragile. I analyze this relationship using Afrobarometer data on support for democracy from 2002 to 2015, covering 129,002 individuals across 16 countries, combined with granular weather data from 1960 to 2015 at a 27km × 27km grid cell resolution. I find that exposure to drought reduces support for democracy by 2.56% to 5.28%, but this effect is limited to individuals living in established democracies. I further explore how this weakening of democratic norms is linked to exposure to non-democratic governance systems, proxied by proximity to development projects funded by technocratic (World Bank) or autocratic (China) regimes. I find that the effect of droughts on support for democracy is significant only for individuals exposed to non-democratic systems. Finally, I provide suggestive evidence that this reduction in support for democracy is associated with fewer riots and conflict events. These findings highlight the political costs of climate change in developing countries.
Date: 3 March 2025, 11:30
Venue: Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details: Skills Lab
Speaker: Nicolas Cerkez (University of Oxford)
Organising department: Department of Economics
Part of: Political Economy Seminar
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Members of the University only
Editor: Edward Clark