The welfare cost of uncertainty: Cross-country evidence
This talk estimates the welfare costs of uncertainty for four different economic groups. The source of uncertainty is both economic fluctuations and macroeconomic disasters. For each of the economic groups the trend growth rate, growth rate volatility, disaster probability and the size distribution of disasters is estimated. Adjacent groups differ significantly in terms of growth and uncertainty, but within each group the welfare gain of growth and the welfare cost of uncertainty is in the same magnitude. Moreover, sensitivity analysis show that small increases in growth have a more significant impact on the welfare cost of uncertainty than large decreases in uncertainty.
Date:
2 December 2019, 12:00 (Monday, 8th week, Michaelmas 2019)
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
Seminar Room E
Speaker:
Kine Josefine Aurland-Bredesen (Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
Organising department:
Department of Economics
Organiser:
Rossa O'Keeffe-O'Donovan (University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address:
gpi-office@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
Topics:
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editor:
William Jefferson
