This talk draws on findings from applying novel empirical approaches to understanding climate change and its impacts in the past, present, and future.The talk will highlight the impact major ‘natural’ changes in global climate have had on the five largest mass extinctions over the last 500 million years, and will explain modelling of recent CO2 emissions and concentrations which confirm the impact of human activity, with a focus on UK CO2 emissions over the period 1860 – 2016. The role of major policy interventions which have reduced the UK’s per capita annual emissions below any level since 1860 when the UK was the ‘workshop of the world’ will be investigated.

Professor Sir David Hendry, INET Oxford and Climate Econometrics, will illustrate how to investigate the costs of ‘mis-forecasting’ extreme climate events by studying the economic impacts of inaccuracies in hurricane forecasts and will discuss empirical evidence on local climate impacts of emissions and what influences climate-change scepticism. Future climate is illustrated by projecting the impacts of 1.5°C versus 2°C on temperature and sea-level rise.

The talk will be followed by a drinks reception, all welcome.